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NBH Rate Decision Coming Up (13:00GMT/14:00CET)

HUNGARY
  • Given the risks which warranted caution at the last MPC meeting have largely subsided, recent softer-than-expected inflation and GDP data are likely to facilitate a step-up in the NBH’s easing pace to 100bps at this week’s meeting.
  • Nevertheless, the threat to FX stability of a more dovish policy mix poses downside risks. Among sell-side, analysts lack clear conviction over the size of this month’s rate cut, with almost all noting that HUF performance may warrant a cautious approach again.
  • The decision on the base rate will be announced at 1300GMT/1400CET. Deputy Governor Virag’s press conference usually begins 1 hour after the decision when the policy statement is released, though this is yet to be officially confirmed.

See our full preview of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, here.

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