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NBH To Levitate Policy Rate to November 2008 Highs

HUNGARY
  • The NBH is likely to hike its policy rate by 100bps on July 26, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 10.75%, the highest level since November 2008.
  • The central bank has continued to aggressively intervene by raising both its 1W depo and base rates by 200bps in the beginning of the month to ease the selling pressure on HUF.
  • Risks are slightly skewed to the downside following the HUF recovery, therefore the NBH may proceed with a 75bps hike at this meeting as the market has been pricing in a lower hike than sell-side analysts' median estimates.
  • However, a 50bps hike may be too ‘dovish’ and result in some HUF depreciation; as a result, Hungary policymakers could trim this option as the forint still remains vulnerable in the near term (political uncertainty, twin deficits, negative real yields…).
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