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NBP Gatnar Favors Symbolic 15bps Hike

POLAND
  • Once again, 'hawkish' NBP member Eugeniusz Gatnar mentioned in an interview earlier this morning that the MPC board needs to show that it has noticed the recent surge in inflation and therefore is in favour of a symbolic 15bps hike, which would signal the start of a gradual policy normalisation. Gatnar is also concerned about the booming property market in Poland as it raises wealth inequality.
  • According to June forecasts, NBP sees CPI at 4.6% in Q2, 4.7% in Q3, 4.8% in Q4 and 4.1% in Q1 2022 (all above NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band)• At this stage, the majority of the NBP board seems to the be favorable to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery, and start raising when the Covid uncertainty eases.
  • The MP divergence between Poland and Hungary / Czech could start to weigh on the PLN relative to the HUF and CZK in the medium term.
  • Yesterday, unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 6.1% this morning; next important data to watch is the June preliminary CPI inflation print coming out on June 30.
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