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NBP, Government Lack Credibility, According to Local Press

POLAND
  • NBP’s Kotecki speaks with Gazeta Wyborcza (published yesterday), flagging the risk of 3 to 4 years of elevated inflation in Poland, with CPI seen in double-digits until the end of 2023. This sees inflation expectations de-anchoring, with the authorities providing a lack of coherence in their inflation-fighting strategy. Kotecki sees CPI exceeding 20% in February.
  • For prices going forward, Rzeczpospolita see food prices growing further across September, citing tracking firm ASM, who analysing 13 retail networks.
  • Rzeczpospolita flag the risks to the Polish bond market in a piece citing several economists, who argue that the NBP and government should work on improving credibility to avoid a bond market crisis. The economists warned that a sell-off could resume despite recent stability.
  • The banking sector continues to focus on the status of possible payments into the national bank guarantee fund, with today’s DGP suggesting contributions will not need to be made in 2023 at all, following a cut to the target deposit guarantee level. It’s possible these payments could also be avoided in 2024 should there by no significant acceleration in deposits relative to the longer-term average.
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