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NBP Governor Glapinski Confirms That Tightening Too Early Remains Risky

POLAND
  • At 10 am (London time), PM Morawieck will hold a press conference on situation on Belarus border. As a reminder, Poland declared a state of emergency in two regions bordering Belarus on Thursday following a surge of illegal migration that Warsaw has blamed on its neighbors (Reuters).
  • NBP Governor Glapinski reiterated that tightening monetary policy would be risky given the elevated uncertainty over the economic recovery (PAP). However, the central bank is not ignoring the fast acceleration in inflation and will not let it become permanent, implying that the September and October inflation prints will be key for the policy outlook.
  • Forward rates have been surging in the past week following the positive surprise in inflation (in August), with traders speculating that NBP will be 'forced' to hike earlier than expected, which has been one of the factors behind PLN strength recently.
  • Odds for a November rate hike have been rising, which could be the start of a gradual tightening.
  • Next NBP meeting is on September 8; policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold.
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