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NBP in Focus Ahead of Busy Week for EM Data

CROSS ASSET
  • AUD sits comfortably at the top of the G10 FX pile following the RBA’s somewhat unexpected 25bps rate hike and accompanying hawkish policy statement. NZD sits firmer also as AUD strength spills over. EUR/USD pared overnight gains and now trades marginally in the red after the latest ECB survey showed that Eurozone consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 4.1% in April from 5.0% in March.
  • Though EUR/USD trades softer, ING analysts note that a stronger EUR will likely support CEE FX today, with CZK in particular seen outperforming having already demonstrated the highest beta against EUR/USD within the region in recent weeks. USD/TRY continues to post fresh highs, with the pair targeting the 22.00 handle next.
  • The NBP rate decision is the key risk event in EM today (Exp: Unchanged) with Governor Adam Glapinski holding his usual press conference tomorrow. CPI data for Hungary, Russia, Mexico, Colombia and Chile as well as the CBR and Peru rate decisions take focus later in the week.
  • There is a thin data calendar in Europe today, with Fedspeak from Cleveland Fed President Mester crossing further out.

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