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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- In the past few week, we have seen that a rising number of NBP policymakers have started to express their concern over inflation risks in Poland, expecting CPI to average over 4% in 2021, which is significantly higher than NBP and sell-side current forecasts.
- In an interview today, NBP policymaker Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that he sees inflation 'above 4% at year-end', with price growth driven by factors outside monetary policy realm.
- However, the NBP will not hike rates if it 'endangers the economy'; policymakers aim to keep financial conditions as loose as possible in order to stimulate the economic recovery after a difficult first quarter due to worsening Covid situation.
- The chart below shows that Poland currently offers the lowest 10Y real yield (after China) among the EM world; Poland 10Y real yield is currently at -2.5% when we adjust for headline inflation.
- Could the 'temporary' financial repression lead to some PLN depreciation in the near to medium term against the major crosses?
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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