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NBP Keeps Rates Unchanged, Implements Marginal Tweaks To Rhetoric

POLAND
  • The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its reference rate unchanged at 5.75% for the fourth consecutive month but the tone of the statement arguably turned more hawkish at the margin. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) reaffirmed its expectations of a U-shaped inflation path, adding that price growth may accelerate "significantly" in 2H2024 should the government decide to lift anti-inflationary measures (the previous statement only pointed to uncertainty around the regulatory and fiscal outlook). The Council also mentioned the impact of larger wage hikes on aggregate demand, which was absent from the January statement. Furthermore, the Council tweaked the final paragraph, adding the word "sustainably" while pledging to "take all necessary actions in order to (...) bring inflation down sustainably to the NBP inflation target in the medium term." In the grand scheme of things, however, these adjustments were broadly consistent with previous messaging and did not represent a paradigm shift. We will learn more from Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.
  • The European Commission told DGP that the milestones in the National Recovery Plans submitted by member states alongside their application for post-COVID recovery funds may be renegotiated. Poland's new government had flagged its intention to revise the plan.
  • Rzeczpospolita reported that the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party considers petitioning the Constitutional Tribunal to disband ruling coalition parties over an alleged "coup d'etat". Meanwhile, Justice Minister Adam Bodnar said that the Tribunal must be "rebuilt from the scratch" after being politicised by PiS.
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