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NBP Likely To Maintain The Pace Of Its Tightening Cycle on November 3

POLAND
  • Poland will next week submit to parliament draft legislation on its Disciplinary Chamber, in response to a ruling from the European Union's top court requiring it to dismantle the controversial regime for punishing judges (BBG).
  • This morning, economic data showed that manufacturing PMI came in higher than expected in October at 53.8 (vs. 53 exp.), up from 53.4 the previous month.
  • On the other hand, we previously saw that consumer confidence deteriorated in October amid rising Covid uncertainty.
  • NBP is likely to maintain the pace of its tightening cycle at its tomorrow's meeting (Nov 3) and hike the benchmark rate by at least 40bps.
  • A lower hike (i.e. 25bps) could disappoint the market and therefore increase the selling pressure on PLN, given that inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated until at least the end of this year.
  • This morning, Deputy Finance Minister commented that inflation could hit 8% this year.
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