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NBP Likely to Raise Policy Rate by 50bps

POLAND
  • The NBP is likely to continue its tightening cycle, maintaining the current pace to combat inflation and limit PLN depreciation.
  • The policy rate is expected to be raise by 50bps to 2.25% in today’s meeting (which was moved forward from an earlier scheduled Jan. 12).
  • The central bank is also likely to prolong its tightening cycle if PLN continues to remain weak against major crosses.
  • The uncertainty over the policy outlook in addition to the growing political tensions with the EU have been weighing on PLN, and therefore supporting inflation expectations.
  • Some NBP members and former Polish policymakers have been criticizing the central bank in its late response to the surge in inflation.

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