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NBP Likely To Surprise Markets Again Today

POLAND
  • The NBP is likely to maintain the pace of tightening cycle and hike by at least 40bps.
  • Inflation surprised positively again in October, and could reach 8% by year-end (Deputy Finance Minister).
  • Consensus is currently pricing in a 25bps hike, which could disappoint the market and therefore lead to further PLN depreciation.
  • Government spokesman Piotr Muller mentioned in a radio interview this morning that Poland had over 10.4K Covid cases in the past 24 hours, which increases the odds for regional lockdowns in the near term if the situation keeps deteriorating.
  • Muller also added that the government is currently seeking measures to protect the poorest from the surge in inflation.

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