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NBP May Need To Rise Policy Rate Above 1.50% in 2022 (Zyzynski)

POLAND
  • In the past few weeks, we have seen that the NBP board has switched from a super-dovish stance, with the majority of policymakers aiming to keep interest rates low until the end of Q1 2022, to strongly hawkish.
  • NBP surprised the market in its last two meetings, raising the policy rate by 40bps last month (vs. no change expected) and again hiking by 75bps last week (vs. 25bps exp.).
  • The policy rate is now standing slightly below its pre-Covid level (1.50%) following the two hikes.
  • This morning, NBP member Jerzy Zyzynski mentioned in an interview that the rise in inflationary pressures may bring the policy rate above 1.50% in 2022.
  • As a reminder, inflation is expected to peak in January 2022; NBP Gatnar recently said that CPI may reach 9%, significantly diverging from the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band.
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