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NBP's Dabrowski Says Inflation Could Accelerate To +6%-7% Y/Y By Year-End

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  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski outlined a relatively hawkish view on the inflation outlook, noting that the adjustments raising the cap on energy prices from July may boost headline inflation to +6%-7% Y/Y at the end of the year. This contrasts with Governor Glapinski's suggestion that inflation could be around +5.5% Y/Y at the end of 2024 and with an even more benign forecast offered by Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski (+4.0%-4.5% Y/Y). Dabrowski, who had been seen as the most dovish MPC member as recently as in September before a rapid change in his rhetoric, said that the current level of interest rates "is currently sufficient to stabilise inflation" but it may take a bit longer to bring inflation to the target due to robust wage growth.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said that the Prime Minister has instructed him to prepare a plan to raise the annual tax-free allowance to PLN60k, which was one of the Civic Coalition's campaign pledges.
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki will speak in a panel discussion on public finances organised by Warsaw Stock Exchange at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.
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  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski outlined a relatively hawkish view on the inflation outlook, noting that the adjustments raising the cap on energy prices from July may boost headline inflation to +6%-7% Y/Y at the end of the year. This contrasts with Governor Glapinski's suggestion that inflation could be around +5.5% Y/Y at the end of 2024 and with an even more benign forecast offered by Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski (+4.0%-4.5% Y/Y). Dabrowski, who had been seen as the most dovish MPC member as recently as in September before a rapid change in his rhetoric, said that the current level of interest rates "is currently sufficient to stabilise inflation" but it may take a bit longer to bring inflation to the target due to robust wage growth.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said that the Prime Minister has instructed him to prepare a plan to raise the annual tax-free allowance to PLN60k, which was one of the Civic Coalition's campaign pledges.
  • MPC's Ludwik Kotecki will speak in a panel discussion on public finances organised by Warsaw Stock Exchange at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.