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NBP's Tyrowicz Calls For Higher Rates, CJEU Verdict On CHF Loans Eyed This Week

POLAND
  • NBP's Joanna Tyrowicz maintained her call for higher interest rates and told Rzeczpospolita daily that her previous votes at MPC meetings reflect the "desired" levels of interest rates, which in her view is around 7.5%-8.0%. The regular hawkish dissenter played down the recent downside surprise in core inflation, arguing that it could be explained by one-off events in the services sector, adding that the current inflation path is around 0.9pp higher than the NBP's baseline forecast from March. She also pushed back against Governor Glapinski's comments that renewed rate hikes would cause a considerable spike in unemployment. Tyrowicz warned that "there is no guarantee that inflation will return to the target" and the central bank should stop introducing +10% Y/Y or any other figures to its communications.
  • The government sees 2023 net borrowing needs at PLN150.6bn versus the earlier projection of PLN110.5bn, according to the amended spending plan tabled in parliament. Domestic financing is now seen at PLN126bn (prev. PLN85.3bn), with foreign financing at PLN24.6bn (prev. PLN27bn).
  • All eyes this week are on the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), which will rule in a case on CHF mortgages on Thursday at 08:30BST/09:30CEST. Back in February, the court's advisor issued a pro-consumer legal opinion, which may guide the final verdict.
  • Locally, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal will meet on Wednesday to discuss financial penalties imposed by the CJEU. Should the Tribunal deem relevant parts of EU treaties unconstitutional, it could escalate Poland's existing legal disputes with Brussels.
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