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NBP To Keep Rates Low Until Covid Uncertainty Eases

POLAND
  • Polish government imposed a 7-day obligatory quarantine for people arriving from the U.K. to protect the country against the Delta variant of Covid-19.
  • Yesterday, MPC member Rafal Sura said that it is still too early to hike Polish interest rates in July as uncertainty about the economic recovery remains elevated. Most significant forecasting tool will be November's projections of growth and inflation; if the report shows that inflation will continue to exceed NBP upper tolerance band of 3.5% in 2022 and 2023 mainly cause by demand-side factors (which can by influence by MPC board decision), then Sura will advocate for tighter monetary policy.
  • The majority of the NBP board seems to the be favorable to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery, and start raising rates when the Covid uncertainty eases.
  • The MP divergence between Poland and Hungary / Czech could start to weigh on the PLN relative to the HUF and CZK in the medium term.
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