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NBP: Will Governor Glapinski Reaffirm September Guidance?

NBP
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The National Bank of Poland (NBP) delivered the widely expected on-hold rate decision yesterday, which shifts the focus to this afternoon's presser with Governor Adam Glapinski. Below we summarise sell-side views released in the interim between the rate decision and the presser:

  • BGK see little room for major changes to Governor Glapinski's rhetoric. However, they expect questions surrounding increasingly dovish monetary policy in core and regional economies, and its impact on the NBP's reaction function.
  • ING write that "the main factor preventing the NBP from starting its monetary easing cycle is high and rising inflation, including persistently elevated core inflation." They "expect a discussion on the beginning of easing in Poland to be sparked by the central bank's March 2025 projection and a reversal of the inflation trend." They expect a 25bp rate cut in 2Q25 and a total of 100bp of easing next year.
  • Millennium Bank write that it will be interesting to see if Governor Glapinski's forward guidance from September (potential for starting rate cuts in mid-2025) will be maintained, with disappointing domestic data and more dovish external conditions balanced by higher core inflation and double-digit wage growth.
  • Pekao expect Governor Glapinski to stick with his cautious rhetoric today.
  • In PKO's view, the key thing to watch at today's presser will be whether the Governor reaffirms his dovish pivot from September.
  • Santander note that key measures of inflation expectations recently eased to levels seen before energy price hikes, but the MPC did not adjust the relevant passage of the statement. They still expect the NBP to cut rates only around July 2025.
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The National Bank of Poland (NBP) delivered the widely expected on-hold rate decision yesterday, which shifts the focus to this afternoon's presser with Governor Adam Glapinski. Below we summarise sell-side views released in the interim between the rate decision and the presser:

  • BGK see little room for major changes to Governor Glapinski's rhetoric. However, they expect questions surrounding increasingly dovish monetary policy in core and regional economies, and its impact on the NBP's reaction function.
  • ING write that "the main factor preventing the NBP from starting its monetary easing cycle is high and rising inflation, including persistently elevated core inflation." They "expect a discussion on the beginning of easing in Poland to be sparked by the central bank's March 2025 projection and a reversal of the inflation trend." They expect a 25bp rate cut in 2Q25 and a total of 100bp of easing next year.
  • Millennium Bank write that it will be interesting to see if Governor Glapinski's forward guidance from September (potential for starting rate cuts in mid-2025) will be maintained, with disappointing domestic data and more dovish external conditions balanced by higher core inflation and double-digit wage growth.
  • Pekao expect Governor Glapinski to stick with his cautious rhetoric today.
  • In PKO's view, the key thing to watch at today's presser will be whether the Governor reaffirms his dovish pivot from September.
  • Santander note that key measures of inflation expectations recently eased to levels seen before energy price hikes, but the MPC did not adjust the relevant passage of the statement. They still expect the NBP to cut rates only around July 2025.