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Near Highs, Weekly Claims Beat, SF Daly No Need to "Push Economy Down"

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish near late session highs amid modest selling into strength. Steeper most of the session, curves bull flattened late as bonds rallied/extended highs after the 30Y auction traded through (4.635% high yield vs. 4.641% WI; 2.41x bid-to-cover vs. 2.37x in the prior month.).
  • Projected rate cut pricing look steady vs. post-claims: June 2024 at -10.0% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.302%, July'24 at -28% w/ cumulative at -9.5bp at 5.233%, Sep'24 cumulative -22bp, Nov'24 cumulative -31.1bp, Dec'24 -45.8bp.
  • After a weaker open, Treasuries gapped higher following higher than expected weekly claims (little react to BoE dovish hold just prior).
  • Jobless claims were the highest single week since Aug 2023 although the four-week average only reverses the prior week’s drop, rising from 210k to 215k. Note that NY accounts for 10.2k of the 19.7k increase in the NSA data, with the timing of the spike around late April/early May causing some seasonal adjustment difficulties.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Thursday she sees no need to weaken the U.S. economy to hit the Fed's inflation target. "There's a sense the economy's in a more stable footing. So the question is do we have to really push the economy down and I don't see evidence of that just yet," she said at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
  • Friday Data Calendar focus: UofM Sentiment an several Fed Speakers through the day.
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