Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The prospect of near-term ECB/BoE rate cuts faded further Wednesday after an upside surprise to UK inflation and continued apparent pushback against market-implied ECB easing.
- UK rate markets were hard hit after UK inflation metrics came in higher than expected for December (MNI's review is here). OIS markets currently imply 102bp of BoE cuts in 2024, roughly 25bp less (ie a full cut) than had been seen at Tuesday's close.
- There is now just 50% implied probability of a 25bp cut by May, vs over 85% yesterday.
- Against the backdrop of a hawkish BoE repricing, and strong US retail sales data in the afternoon, OIS implied ECB rate cuts for 2024 pared to 134bp.
- A 25bp cut by April is now only around 3/4 priced, vs being fully priced yesterday, with fewer than 2 cuts seen by the June meeting. ECB President Lagarde noted this morning that while a summer rate cut is "likely", it remained an uncertain prospect.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok