MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Rally Reinforces Bull Theme
Price Signal Summary – GBP Rally Reinforces Bull Theme
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5319.81.
- The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s positive start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. USDJPY is trading higher this week, extending the correction that started Mar 11. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this signals potential for a climb towards resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 151.36. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. However, the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242.
- A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current bullish condition. The yellow metal has delivered another all-time high and breached the psychological $3000.0 handle. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15.
- Bund futures continue to trade inside a range and remain in consolidation mode for now. A bearish trend theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next. The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a test of 90.71, the Mar 6 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0912 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0698 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0572 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point north. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current uptrend and open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0572, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this set-up.
GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2999 High Mar 17
- PRICE: 1.2976 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 1.2862 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 1.2798 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2669 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s positive start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has breached a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The clear break of this price point opens 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2669, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8408 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8345 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play. Friday’s bullish engulfing candle - a reversal pattern - signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8345, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a continuation higher and a break of 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, would open 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
USDJPY TECHS: Correction Extends
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.30/36 High Mar 3 / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 150.18 High Mar 5
- PRICE: 149.87 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 147.45/146.54 Low Mar 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.40 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY is trading higher this week, extending the correction that started Mar 11. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this signals potential for a climb towards resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 151.36. Note that the Mar 3 high is at 151.30. Clearance of both levels is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger is at 146.54, the Mar 11 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 163.59 @ 07:09 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 161.50 Low Mar 17
- SUP 2: 159.96 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains in play and this week’s extension and positive start to the week, reinforces current conditions. The contract is again trading higher, today and sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. The bull cycle is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support lies at 159.96, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17
- PRICE: 0.6380 @ 07:29 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 0.6308 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce this theme. Sights are on the key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Feb 3. On the downside, a move below key short-term support at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. First support to watch is 0.6259, the Mar 11 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching A Key Near-Term Support
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4293 @ 07:36 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. However, the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger, is at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33/129.15 High Mar 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 127.28 @ 05:24 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures continue to trade inside a range and remain in consolidation mode for now. A bearish trend theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is still in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.980 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode and price continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The trend condition remains bearish. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Note that the S/T trend is oversold. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.660 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact and price continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend is oversold and the latest recovery is allowing this to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.37/63 High Mar 17 / 7 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 92.28 @ Close Mar 17
- SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a test of 90.71, the Mar 6 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 90.49, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 7 high. A move above this level would instead strengthen a bullish theme.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.04/117.71 High Mar 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.99 @ Close Mar 17
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Short-term gains in BTP futures are considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and a recovery is allowing this condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.71, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5474.00/5575.00 High Mar 17 / 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5458.00 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 5219.81/5284.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5319.81. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement towards 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle.
E-MINI S&P: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 5967.23 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5847.41 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5759.75 High Mar 17
- PRICE: 5718.00 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5967.23, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.07 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $71.47 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Short-term gains in Brent futures appear corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and the direction remains down. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $73.07, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $69.77 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.37 - High Mar 17
- PRICE: $67.99 @ 07:14 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.77, 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3100.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $3056.8 - 2.500 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3034.5 - 2.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- PRICE: $3017.9 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: $2922.2/2851.8 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current bullish condition. The yellow metal has delivered another all-time high and breached the psychological $3000.0 handle. Bulls have their sights on 3034.51 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at $2832.7, Feb 28 low.
SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.081 - High Mar 14
- PRICE: $33.882 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: $32.653 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $31.945/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver is holding on to its latest gains. The recent rally resulted in a clear break of key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.