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Near Term Crude Contango Strengthens

OIL

Crude time spreads follow the oil market fall with Brent front month down towards the lows of last week as global economic concerns and the risk of further central bank rate hikes outweighs the upside risks from political instability concerns in Russia and risk to crude exports.

  • The potential for more practical, effective measures to boost domestic demand in China has done little to support prices.
  • The Brent Sep-Oct time spread has joined Aug-Sep in contango driven by weak demand concerns and suggesting ample near term supplies. The prompt spread is down near the lowest levels seen this year in January at around -0.27$/bbl.
  • The WTI-Brent spread is holding steady near the lows of the month at around -4.8$/bbl.
  • Technical analysis suggests the bear threat remains with Brent Aug 23 contract support at 71.5$/bbl and WTI support at 66.96$/bbl.
    • Brent AUG 23 down -1.6% at 73$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 23 down -1.6% at 68.26$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.74$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 23-SEP 23 down -0.06$/bbl at -0.23$/bbl
    • Brent SEP 23-OCT 23 down -0.09$/bbl at -0.03$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.4$/bbl at 2.32$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 23-SEP 23 down -0.03$/bbl at -0.2$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.42$/bbl at 2.44$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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