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Near-Term Fed Hikes Resilient But 2023 Rates Slide

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes hold firm for Nov 2 at 68bp, unchanged since Fri close but firming in the US session after weakness overnight despite the ISM miss, with the 113bps of hikes to 4.22% relatively little changed.
  • Much larger moves for 2023 meetings though, with a terminal now seen at 4.43% for Mar’23 (-10bp) before 4.13% for Dec’23 (-19bp), the latter back at pre-Sep FOMC levels and at one point 4.07% post-ISM and helping drive today's strength in equities with S&P up 3%.
  • Williams with text and Q&A still to come shortly before five speakers tomorrow including the first from Governor Jefferson since his confirmation to the Board.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes hold firm for Nov 2 at 68bp, unchanged since Fri close but firming in the US session after weakness overnight despite the ISM miss, with the 113bps of hikes to 4.22% relatively little changed.
  • Much larger moves for 2023 meetings though, with a terminal now seen at 4.43% for Mar’23 (-10bp) before 4.13% for Dec’23 (-19bp), the latter back at pre-Sep FOMC levels and at one point 4.07% post-ISM and helping drive today's strength in equities with S&P up 3%.
  • Williams with text and Q&A still to come shortly before five speakers tomorrow including the first from Governor Jefferson since his confirmation to the Board.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg