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Nearing 2s10s Lows With GDP Eyed Next Week Ahead of BoC

CANADA
  • The GoC curve heads towards next week with 2s10s back at -51bps (-2.5bps on the day), less than 10bps off recent sustained lows in a similar flattening seen in Tsys with Powell’s active pushing of higher rates for longer with growth expectations accordingly remaining depressed.
  • Growth will remain in focus with GDP for June/Q2 on Wednesday, the last major release ahead of the Sep 7 BoC. Real GDP growth has been particularly resilient, 5.6% Y/Y in May, but indicators have continued to soften, most recently small business confidence (which admittedly is less likely to have benefited from terms of trade gains).
  • The Sep 1 extension is also in play, with TD noting the 0.10 year extension for the overall, which “brings a modest but still notable punch for the long-end at 0.06 years”.

GoC 2s10s (pink line)Source: Bloomberg

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