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NEER Continues To Move Lower, USD/CNH Range Bound, Apr Trade Data On Tap

CNH

USD/CNH was range bound post the Asia close, with dips sub 6.9200 supported but unable to get above 6.9250 on the topside. We currently sit just above 6.9200. For Monday's session we were little changed, while the CNY NEER lost a little ground, now back to 124.33 (J.P. Morgan index). This was another fresh YTD low for the index.

  • Today we have Apr trade data, export growth is expected to ease, bringing a lower trade surplus, while import growth is expected to be close to flat (see this link for more details).
  • Elsewhere the focus will rest on local equities, which rallied strongly yesterday led by the financial sector. We have seen some outperformance of China equities versus the rest of the world since the start of May, although this hasn't benefited CNH much.
  • An offset has come from the firmer US yield backdrop in recent sessions, which has kept US-CH yield spreads above recent lows. The 2yr spread is back to +170bps, the 10 yr spread to +75bs.
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