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NEER Marginally Lower, Q4 GDP Prints Below Expectations, Budget Tomorrow


The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is marginally lower to start the week, NEER sits ~0.8% below the upper end of the band at present levels. We are comfortably within recent ranges for the index, last around 135.82, still showing a flattish trend since the start of the year.

  • USD/SGD is little changed from today's opening levels, last printing at $1.3305/10.
  • Q4 GDP was on the wires this morning, with the final QoQ figure printing at 0.1%, the Bloomberg survey median estimate was 0.3%. The YoY figure was 2.1% vs 2.3% exp.
  • The government kept its GDP growth forecast for 2023 unchanged, (0.5-2.5%), the same as what the PM stated at the end of 2022. Tomorrow the government delivers the 2023 budget.
  • MAS Deputy MD Edward Robinson also spoke this morning, he noted that monetary policy stance remains appropriate, and that policy tightening is slowing inflation momentum.
  • Technicals remain bearish for USD/SGD. Bulls target the 50-day EMA at $1.3366. Bears first look to break of the 20-Day EMA at $1.3241.

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