Estimated net migration to NZ in May rose 1410, the lowest since August 2022, and April was revised down 2270 to 5110. Strong migration has put pressure on rents but has added substantially to labour supply helping to take the heat out of wages. Flows have clearly turned now with the 12-month sum declining since October last year. Softer labour demand may be discouraging some people from migrating to NZ and encouraging people to leave NZ, especially for Australia. With SEEK vacancies declining sharply and labour supply still rising, the unemployment rate is likely to continue rising but lower migration should reduce applicants/job. Despite softer labour conditions, we do not expect a change in rates or tone from the RBNZ today (see MNI RBNZ Preview).
NZ labour supply 