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New CBA Spending Data Point To Soft July Retail Sales


July retail sales print on Monday August 28. They fell 0.8% m/m in June to be up 2.3% y/y. Since that release CBA has published its revamped household spending series, the Household Spending Insights (HSI), which includes seasonal adjustment and covers around 30% of Australia’s card transactions. See MNI CBA Spending Insights Shows Continued Soft Consumption for more details. This new data is closely correlated with the ABS’ retail sales. The annual rates have a 90% correlation and the monthly ones 92%. In July the HSI was flat on the month to be up 1.3% y/y. A flat reading for July retail sales would result in annual growth easing further to 1.6%.

Australia retail sales vs CBA household spending y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Bloomberg

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