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New Home Sales Continue To Pick Up As Existing Sales Dive

US DATA

New home sales accelerated to a much-stronger-than-expected 759k in September (vs 680k expected and 676k prior revised), for the highest sales figure since Feb 2022.

  • 58k of the 83k increase came from the South region, with all 4 major regions seeing higher sales activity.
  • Months of supply fell to 6.9, the lowest since Feb 2022, down 0.8 from Aug. On the year, median prices fell to $419k from $477k, and vs the Oct 2022 peak of $497k (but a little higher than the mid-2023 lows).
  • Home sales across the board started falling from pandemic highs over 2021, with the drop accelerating as interest rates found their footing ahead of the Fed's first hike in March 2022. (See chart).
  • While Existing home sales continue to plummet however (lowest since 2010 in Sept), as homeowners are unwilling to move and refinance lest they give up their low-rate fixed mortgages, New home sales have pulled higher.
  • This divergence has helped boost homebuilder activity, with single family home permits continuing to grow at a robust pace.
  • New home sales is also an input into the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for Q3, which comes ahead of Thursday's initial Q3 release.

Source: Census Bureau, MNI

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