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New Survey Suggests Texas Senate Race Could Be Competitive


A new survey from Republican affiliated pollster National Public Affairs has found that the Texas Senate race for the seat of high-profile incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) could be competitive in November.

  • National Public Affairs find Cruz and Democrat candidate Colin Allred polling in a dead heat 44% apiece with 12% undecided. However, Cruz far outstrips Allred in voter favourability 42% to 28% suggesting that Allred has limited name recognition in the state.
  • The survey finds that immigration is the most concerning issue for voters, as it likely will be across broad swathes of the electorate in November. However, voters also flag issues which are generally more favourable to Democrats as key issues - 'threats to Democracy and abortion' pointing at a credible pathway for Democrat to mount a strong campaign.
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race as 'likely Republican,' but may update their rating in coming weeks if more polling data supports the finding of NPA.

Figure 1: Texas Senate Race 2024

Source: National Public Affairs

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