New York Special Election To Provide First Hard Voting Data Of 2024

New York's third Congressional district will go to the ballot box tomorrow to fill the vacant House seat of expelled former Republican George Santos. Polling suggests that the race between former Democratic Rep Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip will be tight.

• Early voting ended yesterday with data released by election officials suggesting that Suozzi has a slight advantage and, with a storm forecast for Monday and Tuesday, any disruption could benefit Democrats.
• With the reliability of polling a persistent concern, tomorrow's vote will provide the first clear glimpse of the temperature of the electorate on a range of key issues, including immigration and crime - key issues in New York and nationwide.
• Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, a series of special elections foreshadowed that the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade would be the central political issue of the cycle, rather than inflation and energy prices which cratered Biden's approval rating and pointed towards a red wave.
• Politico notes: "For Democrats, a win would — among other things — suggest a way to overcome ongoing Republican attacks over crime and immigration, which they concede are a major problem for their party’s image."
• A Republican win would offer a blueprint for the GOP to counter Democratic strength in suburban districts with high proportions of university educated voters.
• However, reading too much into Tuesday's election may overlook the unique trajectory of Long Island which has been trending red in the past few election cycles.