October 14, 2024 00:11 GMT
NEW ZEALAND: Soft Spending But Appears To Be Stabilising
NEW ZEALAND
Total card transactions rose 0.3% m/m in September to be down 0.7% y/y, up from -1.8%. Retail appears to have stabilised helped by tax and rate cuts but remains weak posting a flat outcome to be down 3.7% y/y but up from 4.3%. 3-month momentum is also gradually improving but remains negative. This data adds to surveys indicating that weak growth continued in Q3 but that it may improve next year, as the RBNZ expects.
NZ card spending y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Q3 CPI is forecast to rise 0.7% q/q and tradeables fall 0.1% q/q when data is released on Wednesday. Either result, or something in between, indicates that real retail sales fell again in Q3 as retail card spending fell 0.7% q/q and core retail -0.5% q/q. Q2 retail volumes contracted 1.2% q/q and 3.5% y/y.
NZ quarterly retail sales y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Retail expenditure was driven by hospitality (+1% m/m), consumables (+0.2%), apparel (+1.1%) and motor vehicles (+0.8%), but was dragged down by durables (-0.5%) and fuel (-3.1% as prices fell).
- Non-retail ex services rose 1.4% m/m and services increased 1.3% m/m in September and 2.7% q/q and 0.6% q/q in Q3 respectively. Total Q3 card spending was flat.
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