Next Wed 8:30am ET is Nov. Tsy.......>

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Next Wed 8:30am ET is Nov. Tsy qrtrly refunding announcement for

3/10/30-year US Tsy auctions and related debt matters. But also there is a slim

possibility Tsy may bring up idea of Ultra Long Tsy debt. However hardly anybody

seems worried -- rightly or wrongly -- on that possibility. One trader cited

"talk of increases to come" in existing Tsy maturities but thought higher

issuance "would start with bills, and work its way out the curve next year." 

- SocGen's Subadda Rajappa said "prospect of increasing deficits, combined with

the increase in borrowing needs due to the unwind of the SOMA portfolio, is

likely to drive the Tsy's issuance decisions at the refunding meeting. While the

Tsy is likely to continue to focus on increasing issuance in the front end, it

might announce a modest increase in back-end issuance that is not currently

anticipated by the markets. Bills as a percentage of the total outstanding are

currently at 13% and are expected to rise to 16% by the end of 2020, with the

average maturity of debt issuance increasing modestly during that period. The

Treasury is also expected to gradually increase 2y and 3y coupon issuance sizes,

which were drastically reduced from 2011-2014."