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Next Week's Inflation Data In Focus Ahead Of Banxico Feb Decision

MEXICO
  • Retail sales for November came in slightly ahead of expectations, rising 2.4% year-over-year, compared to a 3.8% expansion in the prior month. USDMXN has traded in a much more subdued manner, consolidating on the strong bounce over the past 48 hours.
    • As noted, attention was on the 20-day EMA yesterday which crossed at 19.1315 and capped the price action. The average moves down to 19.1050 today and a break would open 19.3504, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, yesterday’s low of 18.5667, marks the near-term bear trigger.
  • Next Tuesday remains the focus where markets will receive the mid-January CPI reading. This will not be the final print that markets receive before the next Banxico meeting, however, January CPI will be published the day of that decision on February 09.
    • February’s meeting will be of keen interest with the FOMC decision out of the way and as we near the terminal rate. Newly elected board member Mejia will also take the place of the most dovish member, Gerardo Esquivel.
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