NI Protocol Bill Passes 2nd Reading, But Bigger Challenges To Come

The Northern Ireland Protocol bill passed its second reading in the House of Commons last night by the comfortable margin of 292 to 222. The bill is intended to allow the UK gov't to unilaterally change the operation of the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, with the Johnson gov't arguing that the protocol is not operating as intended and is damaging NI-GB links.

• There had been speculation that a number of Conservative MPs, opposed to the continued leadership of PM Boris Johnson, could seek to delay progress of the legislation. However, no Conservatives voted against the bill and although 72 abstained this was not enough to hold up its passage.
• It now goes to the Committee and Report stages, where MPs can suggest amendments. This could be another point of potential difficulty for the gov't should anti-Johnson Conservatives put forward amendments intended to water-down the legislation.
• However, given that the grassroots of the Conservative party remain firmly pro-Brexit, its MPs may prove unwilling to risk the wrath of their local party associations. Instead, they could leave it up to the upper chamber, the House of Lords, where the gov't does not hold a majority and peers can delay the passage of the bill significantly by offering numerous amendments.
• The EU is unlikely to take significant action against the UK gov't while the legislation is still going through parliament, with the hope that the two sides can negotiate a workable agreement during this timeframe.