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NIGERIA-Election Could Be Watershed Moment In Africa's Largest Econ

POLITICAL RISK

The general election taking place in Nigeria on Saturday 25 February could prove a watershed moment in the politics of Africa's largest economy and most significant oil exporter. Since the restoration of democracy in 1999, the country's political system has been dominated by two parties - the nominally centre-left All Progressives Congress (APC) of incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, and the main opposition nominally centre-right People's Democratic Party (PDP). However, the presidential election has developed into a three-way contest between the APC, PDP and the minor Labour Party's candidate, Peter Obi.

  • Obi (61) , a businessman and former governor of Anambra state, is seen as more energetic and reforming candidate than the APC's Bola Tinubu (70) or the PDP's Atiku Abubakar (76). While Tinubu is likely the favourite, Obi has led in some polls. If he pulls of a shock win it could significantly alter the Nigerian politician system given his efforts to cross sectarian divides between the largely Muslim north and largely Christian south.
  • The incoming president faces a significant number of issues on taking office, including a long-running armed conflict based on religious and tribal lines in Nigeria's northeast, violent crime, widespread corruption, and shortages of physical cash, food, and electricity.
  • The poor state of Nigeria's oil sector - with ageing equipment in the Niger delta both subject to breakdowns as well as sabotage from militants in the region - means that the country's substantial resources do not provide the fiscal boost that a more efficient hydrocarbon sector might.
  • All three candidates have promised both to enhance investment in the hydrocarbon sector, but also to phase out oil subsidies and seek to diversify the economy.

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