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MNI PREVIEW: RBNZ Seen On Hold; Await November Meet

MNI (Sydney)
SYDNEY (MNI)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave official interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.25% for a sixth straight month when it meets Wednesday, with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program maintained at NZD 100 billion.

The decision comes after recent data showed that the NZ economy shrank by a record 12.2% in the second quarter due to the coronavirus lockdown, with the country entered recession for the first time in 11 years.

The decline in GDP, however, is expected to be short lived with a record increase in GDP forecast for the third quarter as many businesses re-opened and consumers return to a degree of normality, taking the pressure off of the central bank to extend their accomodative policy.

Adding to the sense that the RBNZ has time on its side, the Treasury has forecast that unemployment will hit a peak of 7.8% in 2020, well below previous forecasts of a 10% peak.

In August meeting, the RBNZ announced an increase in its Large Scale Asset Program of Government bond buying from NZD60 billion to NZD100 billion, expressing a preference" for a package of measures which could include negative official interest rates, adding that staff were preparing for its implementation based on the readiness of the financial system.

NEGATIVE RATES

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr did not commit the bank to implement the negative rates program, saying it would be deployed "if deemed necessary."

Last month, RBNZ chief economist Yuong Ha said they continued to be in contact with commercial banks to prepare them for zero or negative interest rates by the end of the year, although he stressed the timing of any move was dependent on how the economy performed in the next quarter.

He said that while wholesale rates may be at zero or negative there was no expectation that retail rates would go as low "but there is room for them to fall (from current levels)," he said.

The August MPS said that "considerable monetary stimulus remains necessary to achieve our employment and inflation objectives," and despite brighter signs, that remains the case

The RBNZ usually times policy decisions to coincide with the MPS, and the next statement is due on November 11.

MNI Sydney Bureau | +61-405-322-399 | lachlan.colquhoun.ext@marketnews.com
MNI Sydney Bureau | +61-405-322-399 | lachlan.colquhoun.ext@marketnews.com

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