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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
From our January Fed preview: while analysts are basically unanimous in expecting the Fed to cut rates in 2024, there is a fairly wide split of opinions on the magnitude and timing.
- The “median” analyst whose previews we read for our FOMC preview saw 125bp of Fed funds rate cuts in 2024, starting at the May meeting. But the range of expectations runs from 75 to 275bp, with several seeing cuts beginning in March or June.
- The most aggressive rate cut path is seen by UBS, which expects 275bp of cuts in 2024 starting in March, with 150bp more in Q1 2025 to 1.00-1.25%.
- NatWest sees the Fed starting to cut only in May, but with a 50bp reduction.
- While some see cuts slowing in 2025, some see them picking up pace vs 2024.
- On tapering QT, the general expectation is that the Fed will cap Treasury runoff at $30B (vs $60B currently) by mid-year, with QT ending in Q3 or Q4 2023, but the timings vary slightly.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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