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No Decision to Hike Rates in the Coming Quarters - NBP Kochalski

POLAND
  • This morning, NBP policymaker Cezary Kochalski mentioned in an interview (PAP) that there will be no decision situation to hike policy rates in the coming quarters.
  • It is very likely that Poland will keep policy rates changed through 2022 as the country may not reach a state of balanced growth next year.
  • The economic activity was sharply reduced in the first quarter amid the worsening Covid situation in the CEE region; Covid daily new cases are still standing far above the mid-February levels of 5,000/5,500 (7D SMA has been on the rise in the last four days, up 1,800 to 21,400). As a result, officials have decided to extend most of the virus restrictions for another week to April 25.
  • NBP Kochalski confirmed that the spike in inflation is only expected to be temporary (with CPI inflation expected to rise above the 3.5% upper tolerance band in the coming months), and that inflationary pressures are expected to ease in the second half of 2021.
  • According to the NBP March inflation forecasts, CPI inflation is expected to average 3.1% in 2021 and then ease to 2.8% in 2022.
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