No Frontrunner For Next Conservative Leader As Support Drains From PM

Following the resignation of another junior minister (Minister for School Standards Robin Walker) and the publication of a series letters from Conservative MPs announcing their lack of confidence in PM Boris Johnson's leadership (including from previously very pro-Johnson 'Red Wall' MP Lee Anderson), focus is likely to turn to who is most likely to take over as the next UK PM, and what sort of policy agenda will they seek to enact.

• Betting markets show no clear frontrunner to take over from Johnson if/when he leaves office. At present data from Smarkets shows Minister of State for Trade Policy Penny Mordaunt as the narrow favourite, with a 16.7% implied probability of becoming the next Conservative leader, and therefore PM. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is second, with an implied probability of 14.3%.
• Following these two, six potential candidates sit between 5-10% implied probability of becoming the next leader (Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Tom Tugendhat, newly-installed Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, former Health Secretary Sajid Javid, and former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt).
• Many of these candidates likely to have varying policy stances, but a key factor will be whether they retain the Johnson gov'ts stance of maintaining an elevated tax burden to support a larger state, or return to a more traditional 'Conservative' stance of tax cuts and reducing public sector spending.
• The Conservative party grassroots members that get the final say on the next leader generally lean further to the right than non-member Conservative voters, and therefore a candidate reaching the final round with promises of tax cuts could end up winning party leadership.