No Further Summer Throughput Drop After Asia Cuts in July: FGE

Asian refinery throughput will be curbed by maintenance in the coming weeks and will be followed by a smaller than usual seasonal increase according to FGE as several refiners in East and Southeast Asia are potentially planning to cut runs in July. They don’t see any further refinery run cuts until after the summer.

• Global refining margins have edged slightly higher in the past week due to stronger gasoline cracks in the Atlantic Basin. FGE expects European diesel cracks close to 20$/bbl in June and July as fewer cargoes come into the region.
• “Summer gasoline support, stronger European diesel cracks and lower Asian runs should keep further talk of run cuts on hold until at least after the summer.”

• The outlook beyond summer depends on availability of new capacity as FGE doesn’t expect exports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery until early to the middle of next year.
• The Asian gasoline balance is tight, suggesting there is room for elevated Chinese exports over the next two months.