No Guarantee Of SNP Majority As Election Approaches

A number of opinion polls in recent days have shown a small but consistent decline in support for the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) as the Scottish parliament election approaches on 6 May.

• Scottish parliament voting intention(s) via SavantaComRes, 23 - 27 Apr. Chgs. w/ 20 Apr:
  • Constituency: SNP: 45% (-1), CON: 23% (-2), LAB: 23% (+3), LDEM: 7% (+1)
  • List: SNP: 36% (-2), CON: 22% (-1), LAB: 19% (+2), GRN: 10% (+3), LDEM: 5% (-), ALBA: 2% (+1)
• The latest polls show the SNP on the precipice of winning a majority with some suggesting the party will squeeze over the line, others indicating that external support from the pro-independence Greens or former SNP First Minister Alex Salmond's Alba Party (if it enters parliament) will be required for a majority.
• The issue of the SNP winning a majority could be crucial to the future of the United Kingdom as a national and political entity. The SNP has argued that if it wins an outright majority at Holyrood (which uses an electoral system intended to stop parties winning outright majorities), this acts as a de facto endorsement by the Scottish electorate of holding another independence referendum.
• There is no legal mechanism for the SNP in Holyrood to hold a binding referendum, as that power lies with the UK gov't at Westminster.
• Even if the SNP does win a majority, it is likely to hold off on calls for an immediate ballot on becoming a separate state. As well as a decline in support for the SNP, polls are also showing a small but sustained decline in support for Scottish independence as a whole. The SavantaComRes poll listed above also examined enthusiasm for independence:
  • Should Scotland be an independent country: Yes: 42%, No: 49%, Unsure: 8%.
  • The 7% lead for 'No' is the largest pro-union polling number since December 2019.