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No Impact From Retail Sales, “Finely Balanced” Discussions Continue

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SONA futures are flat to +1.5, with an uptick in Bunds lending support in early Friday trade.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing ~14bp of easing through the Aug MPC, ~22.bp of cuts through the Sep gathering and ~48bp through year end.
  • Most of yesterday’s post-BoE dovish adjustment has stuck, with focus on the confirmation that yesterday’s decision was “finely balanced” for some MPC members remaining evident.
  • Little lasting impact when it comes to the firmer-than-expected UK retail sales print. The volatile data series isn’t expected to impact monetary policy.
  • Elsewhere, the GfK consumer confidence index moved to the highest level seen in around two and a half years, although remains in negative territory. There may be an element of election-linked hope in the latest uptick The release shouldn’t be a market mover.
  • Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar during the remainder of the day.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.062-13.8
Sep-244.979-22.1
Nov-244.823-37.7
Dec-244.720-48.0
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SONA futures are flat to +1.5, with an uptick in Bunds lending support in early Friday trade.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing ~14bp of easing through the Aug MPC, ~22.bp of cuts through the Sep gathering and ~48bp through year end.
  • Most of yesterday’s post-BoE dovish adjustment has stuck, with focus on the confirmation that yesterday’s decision was “finely balanced” for some MPC members remaining evident.
  • Little lasting impact when it comes to the firmer-than-expected UK retail sales print. The volatile data series isn’t expected to impact monetary policy.
  • Elsewhere, the GfK consumer confidence index moved to the highest level seen in around two and a half years, although remains in negative territory. There may be an element of election-linked hope in the latest uptick The release shouldn’t be a market mover.
  • Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar during the remainder of the day.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.062-13.8
Sep-244.979-22.1
Nov-244.823-37.7
Dec-244.720-48.0