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T-Notes hold a little above the late NY lows at typing, last -0-00+ at 139-11+.
- The outlook for the evolution of monetary policy outlined in the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy decision ultimately disappointed when compared to broader market expectations. The minutes highlighted a desire to further clarify forward guidance "at some point" with outcome-based guidance getting more focus vs. a calendar-based alternative, but the lack of urgency disappointed many. There was also no meaningful discussion re: altering the maturity profile of the Fed's Treasury purchases. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Fed doesn't appear to be in any real rush re: the adoption of yield curve control, with most Committee members seeing only modest benefits from the adoption of such an instrument, while "many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the Committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly." Fed rhetoric surrounding the economic outlook remained understandably cautious. The minutes pushed T-Notes to session lows and resulted in curve steepening.
- Ahead of the minutes we saw the latest 20-Year auction tail by ~1.0bp, as the cover ratio dipped and dealer participation ticked higher.
- Elsewhere, the latest ratcheting up of Sino-U.S. tension focused on Hong Kong and Taiwan, although WSJ source reports suggested that "U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators plan to confer by video in the coming days over progress in fulfilling terms of the "Phase One" trade deal and U.S. actions against Chinese technology firms."
- Little of note on the docket during Asia-Pac hours, so regional reaction to the minutes/curve steepening will be eyed.
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