POWER
-PRICE UPDATE- No liquidity was recorded on the Polish power exchange TGE future curve amid a public holiday today. However, the day ahead rebounded after a two-session decline amid a drop in wind output and an unplanned outage at some fossil-fuel-fired units.
- The day-ahead rose to PLN366.06/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN236.02/MWh for Monday as wind is expected to be at a 51% load factor, or 4.72GW tomorrow compared to a 53% load factor, or 4.90GW today.
- Spot prices rose despite temperatures increasing to 3.55C on 7 January from 1.73C today as demand is expected to rise on the day as a result of the public holiday at between 14.35GW-23.35GW from 14.05-18.10GW today.
- An unplanned outage at the 228MW unit 1 at the 1.8GW Kozienice 1 power plant will also occur over 7-8 January – contributing to the price increase, with unplanned curtailments at the 226MW unit 3 and 236MW unit 6 at the 1.83GW Turow plant over the same period also supporting.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at a 58% load factor, or 5.35GW on 8 January – which could drop prices from the previous day.
Wind will then drop to a 32% load factor the next day, which could see day-ahead costs rebound.
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