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NOAA Raise Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Season to 60%


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week increased the forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season due to rising sea surface temperatures.

  • NOAA is now showing a total of 14 to 21 named storms compared to 12-17 predicted in May with the season expected until early October. They increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season from 30% to 60%.
  • Warmer sea surface temperatures combined with the El Niño weather pattern are “really the root of most of the uncertainty we have in this outlook,” said Matt Rosencrans at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
  • El Niño can create disruptive wind but those conditions are emerging “a bit later than initially anticipated,” he said.
  • Hurricanes entering the US Gulf could tighten the US gasoline market and disrupt oil production and trade flows. Approximately half of US refining capacity is on the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Source: NOAA

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