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NOK: July CPI May Define Short-Term Narrative In NOKSEK

NOK

Norway July inflation is released tomorrow at 0700BST/0800CET, and could be key in shaping the guidance at next Thursday’s Norges Bank decision. Bloomberg consensus sees CPI-ATE inflation at 3.4% Y/Y, with the Norges Bank forecasting 3.7% Y/Y in its June MPR. 

  • NOKSEK is little changed today, trading just below prior resistance at 0.9711 (March 12 low). A lower-than-expected inflation print could re-expose key multi-year pivot support around 0.9500, particularly with moving averages still in a bear-mode set-up.
  • Should inflation print above consensus and closer to the Norges Bank’s June MPR forecasts, this would bring the 20-day EMA (0.9772) into play, with the 50-day EMA at 0.9837 seen a little further out.
  • Clearance of both these EMAs will be required in the coming weeks to undermine the current bearish technical backdrop in the cross.
USCEEMEABulletNorwayGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

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