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NOK on Top as CPI-ATE Re-Accelerates, Raising Likelihood of Dec Hike

FOREX
  • NOK comfortably outperforms, rising against all others in G10 and working against the weakness in the currency across the first half of the week. EUR/NOK has reversed off the week's highs of 12.0062 on the back of the higher-than-expected inflation release that put CPI-ATE - the key input for Norges Bank policymaking - back to 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.6%. On the margins, the inflation release should work in favour of a 25bps rate hike from the Norges Bank at the December meeting, a view that's become more popular among sell-side analysts.
  • Elsewhere, the USD Index is respecting recent ranges, with the 50-dma providing a solid short-term anchor at 105.854. Resultingly, EUR/USD holds close to the week's lower levels, with 1.0656 and 1.0623 marking the next downside levels.
  • AUD is the poorest performer, with risk proxies and high beta currencies slipping alongside weaker core equity markets. US futures are indicating a mixed open on Wall Street Friday, led lower by tech names.
  • Preliminary UMich sentiment data takes focus Friday, with markets expecting the uptick in the one-year ahead inflation expectation evident in the October read to moderate back down to 4.0%. The central bank speaker slate should prove to be of more interest., as ECB's Lagarde and Nagel make appearances as well as Fed's Logan, Bostic and Daly.
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