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NOK on Top as CPI Tips Balance to Further Hikes

FOREX
  • EUR/NOK just off the day's low of 11.5486, finding support at the Monday/Tuesday low. NOK is among the strongest in G10 today following stubbornly high CPI-ATE (6.3% vs. Exp. 6.1%) - which should keep a tightening bias at the Norges Bank. 11.4471 marks the 50-dma for EUR/NOK, with support seen into the mid-April low of 11.3582.
  • AUD and SEK sit toward the bottom-end of the G10 table, but ranges are more muted ahead of the inflation release later today. The equity backdrop has not been risk-supportive, with the e-mini S&P trading on the backfoot through the European open.
  • The USD Index is modestly higher for a third consecutive session, but remains in a holding pattern below the early May highs of 102.404.
  • US CPI takes focus going forward, with markets expecting core CPI to keep pace M/M at 0.4%, while Y/Y slows to 5.5%. The data will be watched carefully for any confirmation that the Fed will pause on rate hikes going forward, with markets still assigning a solid chance of sizeable Fed rate cuts before year-end.
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