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NOK Slides as Norges Bank Step Up SWF Sales

FOREX
  • The greenback trades to the better ahead of the NY crossover, with the USD Index rising back above the 109 handle and trading well within range of the Tuesday highs. Monday's 109.478 marks the recovery and cycle high for the index, and would form a strong signal that the USD upside bias continues to underpin currency markets.
  • USD trades stronger so far Wednesday in tandem with a softer equity outlook. US stock futures indicate another lower open on Wall Street later today, with Tuesday's lows in the e-mini S&P providing the first downside target at 3964.50. Despite softer stocks, however, CHF remains in a near-term downtrend, putting EUR/CHF at higher highs for a seventh consecutive session. The 50-dma remains the next upside level at 0.9812 for the cross.
  • NOK the notable underperformer in G10 so far Wednesday, trading lower against all others following confirmation from the Norges Bank that they are to sell NOK 3.5bln per day across September (effectively buying more FX for the sovereign wealth fund). This is a notable uptick in FX activity from the August rate of NOK 1.5bln per day, as announced at end-July. EUR/NOK now through 9.90 and trading at highest levels since mid-August. Next key resistance rests at the 200-dma of 10.0076.
  • Focus turns to the MNI Chicago PMI at 1445BST/0945ET. Markets expect the figure to hold at 52.1, inline with the July read. Canadian GDP data also crosses as well as speeches from Fed's Mester and Bostic.
  • Additionally, after a brief hiatus, the ADP release their private sector jobs report with a new methodology, which markets could closely comb through for clues ahead of Friday's NFP release.
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