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SCANDIS: NOKSEK Through Dec 20 Low, 0.9500 Slowly Coming Back Into View

SCANDIS
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NOKSEK is down 0.4%, with crude oil and gas benchmarks pressured by the prospect of Russia/Ukraine peace talks following yesterday’s Trump/Putin call, and Hamas seemingly agreeing to stick to the agreed hostage release schedule. SEK also finds support from this morning's > 1% rally in European equities. 

  • The cross has pierced the December 20th low at 0.9625, consolidating yesterday's close below trendline support drawn from the August 5th low. The next support is seen at 0.9572 (Sep 26th low), with a continuation lower starting to bring 0.9500 back into view – a key multi-year pivot level going back to 2016.
  • EURNOK is up 0.25%, pushing through the 50-day EMA at 11.7235. The ~1.7% rally from the Feb 10 low has countered a developing bearish threat, with trendline resistance drawn from the August 5 high (11.7967) the next key topside level.
  • Norges Bank Governor Bache delivers her annual address at 1700GMT/1800CET today.  SEB note that “the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges”, so new policy hints are not the norm. If near-term policy considerations are raised in the speech, we expect guidance for a 25bp March cut to be re-iterated.

Figure 1: NOKSEK

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NOKSEK is down 0.4%, with crude oil and gas benchmarks pressured by the prospect of Russia/Ukraine peace talks following yesterday’s Trump/Putin call, and Hamas seemingly agreeing to stick to the agreed hostage release schedule. SEK also finds support from this morning's > 1% rally in European equities. 

  • The cross has pierced the December 20th low at 0.9625, consolidating yesterday's close below trendline support drawn from the August 5th low. The next support is seen at 0.9572 (Sep 26th low), with a continuation lower starting to bring 0.9500 back into view – a key multi-year pivot level going back to 2016.
  • EURNOK is up 0.25%, pushing through the 50-day EMA at 11.7235. The ~1.7% rally from the Feb 10 low has countered a developing bearish threat, with trendline resistance drawn from the August 5 high (11.7967) the next key topside level.
  • Norges Bank Governor Bache delivers her annual address at 1700GMT/1800CET today.  SEB note that “the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges”, so new policy hints are not the norm. If near-term policy considerations are raised in the speech, we expect guidance for a 25bp March cut to be re-iterated.

Figure 1: NOKSEK

image