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NOKSEK Trades Above Parity Amid Risk Off Tone

SCANDIS

NOKSEK has extended higher, currently up 1.1% and trading just above parity.

  • The latest bout of SEK weakness comes amid the risk-off price action following the latest Israel/Iran headlines (covered above).
  • Any risk-off induced NOK weakness has been countered by oil’s geopolitical risk premium.
  • While oil futures have pushed higher, NOK remains mixed vs the G10 today, and EURNOK has been little changed the past few hours.
  • This morning’s lower-than-expected Swedish CPI release will also be continuing to contribute to intraday SEK weakness in the background.
  • Next week’s Swedish/Norwegian data calendar is quiet, though several Riksbank speakers are scheduled to speak.
  • This will provide an update on the Executive Board’s stance r.e. a May rate cut, which seems the likely outcome following today’s inflation data.
  • A reminder that Handelsbanken and DNB brought forward their calls for the Riksbank’s first rate cut to May (vs June prior) following the inflation data, while Danske Bank held firm and maintained their June call.

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